Will the Economic Stimulus Bill Stimulate Commercial Real Estate?

While some of the details could change, we know that money--lots of money--will be headed out of Washington and into the hands of taxpayers.  Some of them have already received checks, either individually, or through the PPP or other Federal programs.  What will be done with all that cash?

It seems like a safe bet to say that some of it may well be pumped into the real estate market.  The stock market is already high, and somewhat volatile.  Some people will decide instead to invest in tangible assets, and real estate is definitely in that category.  

Once the decision to invest in real estate is made, buyers will shop for the best deals.  And Greater New Haven offers some great deals in this sector.  There is a great need for rental housing, and a built-in student population, which is transient.  Those same students also have disposable income to spend on retail, dining, and entertainment.  They may also work in start-ups and tech companies, which will have at least some need for office and lab space.

That puts Greater New Haven firmly on the "buy" list. Adding its central New England location as a warehouse and distribution hub, and the index for buying is even stronger.  Prices have lagged in commercial real estate and, unlike residential, have not been helped by the pandemic.  It's time to change that.

What's Happening in Greater New Haven Commercial Real Estate?

As has been stated so many times, this is a year like no other. Real estate, like every other sector of the economy, has been impacted by the pandemic, but it hasn't been all bad. Industrial real estate, and anything that can be used for distribution, has been doing very well in an era of home delivery. Not only did Amazon open a big facility in North Haven, they are also gobbling up property in Orange, for their Last Mile project. Investors who thought ahead have been buying up property that might be used by Amazon, or suppliers to Amazon, and this includes both local and national investors. Investment real estate, in the form of multifamily, has taken somewhat of a rent hit with the closing of colleges and universities, but the occupancy rate in the region is still high. Again, both local and out-of-town buyers have been active in our local market. Volatility in the stock market always helps investment real estate. In addition, people who work in NYC and its environs can easily come up as far as our region now, since most workers don't have to go into an office every day. Speaking of offices, the trend to use less space for office has continued. Now it may be less about open work space, and more about the lack of use of all space over the past nine months. That is making tenants re-evaluate how much square footage they really need. In one recent example, a firm that has been largely remote is rethinking a smaller floor plan, because of file storage. Once you have to make a trip somewhere to look through files, there's no real advantage to paying for Class A space to have them next to your desk at work. For a far lower cost, those files can be stored off site. We expect telecommuting, at least some of the time, to continue, and those who don't need to commute will take more residential space, further boosting the residential and investment sectors. That leaves retail, the weakest of the four. While drive throughs and pick up locations are doing well, restaurants, hotels, and bars are clearly not. While they should eventually come back, some of them won't make it, and some will have less margin for rent. Entertainment is a steady driver in most economic conditions, but this one is an outlier. There are a lot of signs out there, and they won't all go away soon. It means that landlords may have to give more incentives, and perhaps take lower rates, at least until the recovery is well underway. Connecticut, and Greater New Haven, have both been fortunate in being ahead of the national market in real estate, due to lagging past performance. If that continues, we can expect a good year next year. All the new sheltering New Yorkers should boost retail, investment, and even office, and their purchases will fill all that distribution space. For those of us in the real estate industry, there's our silver lining.

Too Much Space Is Now Just the Right Amount

 For years now, commercial real estate users have been looking to divest property and downsize in square footage.  This trend picked up rapidly as the pandemic set in, and workers began telecommuting from home.  Once we started to take a long view, however, things changed.

Now we can see far enough ahead to realize that bigger buildings may be an asset.  It allows all kinds of users to have space for their workforce to spread out, or for retail tenants like exercise studios or restaurants to occupy enough real estate to have customers socially distance.  As I've been writing for months now, warehouses were already hot, because of the trend toward ecommerce and the need for distribution hubs.  Now we know that they can also be repurposed for other buyers and tenants.  

As we work our way toward the new normal, whatever that turns out to be, the lack of new supply will force creativity on the part of property owners and investors.  New businesses are springing up, and people are finding ways to work and play in new circumstances.  We can see that there may be a demand for space for learning pods for students, for telecommuters who don't want to or cannot work from home, for pick up and drop off sites for businesses that want customers to be able to stay apart while doing errands, for studio space serving online business and arts production, and for last-mile delivery hubs for all kinds of products.  Can you imagine a giant warehouse full of toilet paper?  If you can, you are probably not alone.  

The world has changed in so many ways, but the creativity and resilience of entrepreneurs and existing industries will be up to the task of figuring out a path forward.  If you are a property seeker, or an investor, location should still be a key factor.  However, don't pay as much attention to size, condition, or current usage.  Whatever you have, a buyer or tenant is probably out there looking for something like it.  And those buyers will certainly have favorable financing terms today.  So think about now as a great time to sell, lease, or sublet. There's no time like the present!

More Browsers Leads to More Buyers

 As we have all adjusted to this most unusual year, several trends have begun to appear.  First of all, people have more time to search on the internet for just about everything.  I've read that they don't buy clothing, but they do seem to want to buy real estate.  And that isn't limited just to residential property for themselves.  We are seeing more hits to our website, more web leads, and more inquiries from outside sites like LoopNet.

That's good news for sellers.  With so many people looking, there will turn out to be more sales.  In fact, one of the ways that we can tell how motivated they are to buy is that they may put in several requests in a row on different types of property, not just on different listings of the same type.  That suggests investment buyers are seriously searching.  With the stock market so volatile, and interest rates so low, that isn't surprising.  

Connecticut is perfectly situated for those kinds of buyers.  Actually, they come from other states as well as our own.  They are looking for places that should do well in any future phases of this pandemics, or other such events.  We are finally getting good press for the way our State behaves, and it's reflected in our area's appeal to out-of-state real estate buyers.  In addition, our positioning for warehouse and distribution is well known, particularly now that Amazon has gotten so big here.

Remember that there are fewer than four months left of this calendar year, and that it's never too early to start a transaction that needs to close before December 31st for tax reasons.  Whether you are a buyer or a seller, it's best to hustle now, and enjoy the fruits of your labor in appreciating property, now or in the future. 

Old Real Estate Maxim Still Rules

 When I was in business school, now decades(!) ago, I had a professor whose current work then was focused on how CEOs decide where to locate company headquarters.  His conclusion, after much research, was that the biggest factor in choosing a location was where the CEO him/herself wanted to live.  

While that isn't a shocking result, it is a little surprising that big organizations, with all kinds of considerations for transportation, labor force, infrastructure, taxes, and a myriad of other factors, would in the end have personal preference of one person as the greatest determinant.  We can see evidence of this still, in the recent behaviors of business executives during the pandemic.

Connecticut has been the beneficiary of a move out of New York City, and thousands of people have moved here in the past six months.  Yet we didn't expect that companies themselves would move, and that's turning out to be the case.  And that isn't just in the office arena--manufacturers and other seemingly less mobile property users are also in the mix.

We are getting showing requests and offers from buyers out of state, who are looking to locate where they plan to live.  There are many reasons for their choices, but it points to a brighter future for Connecticut than was predicted while tax policy and weather was causing a rush to warmer climates and distant vistas.  Now, the proximity to major metropolitan areas, combined with family dynamics, is helping us catch us with the economic progress made by other areas over the past two decades.

There are good reasons for this to continue.  Our location between Boston and NYC is obviously key.  Company owners and investors don't necessarily have to live here, but they will have employees and tenants who do.  Many family business owners also want to be where their children and grandchildren are, whether or not those generations are in the company or not.  The current focus on low density and outdoor space work in our favor, and our natural assets have become more important to real estate decisions.

Looking forward, we can see from the residential market that supply may become a limiting factor.  While none of us expected it, this uncertain age has become one of increased real estate activity, and a good time for sellers to consider putting properties on the market.  Who knew that the old research about company location would be so relevant now?

Residential Homes Statistics 2020 (Through 2nd Quarter)



Multiple Offers Come to Commercial Real Estate

Connecticut has been experiencing a lack of adequate supply in residential real estate for some time now.  It's what we call a "seller's market", meaning that there aren't enough listings to satisfy the demand.  This obviously pushes up prices and lowers time on the market.  It also leads to more than one offer at a time on certain listings, which hasn't happened with such frequency in quite a while.

Lately, we are seeing this trend in on the commercial side as well.  With certain types of real estate, especially warehouse and investment, there aren't enough properties on the market.  This is partially due to the fact that very little has been built in recent years, but changes in demand have also affected us.  

One such trend is the move out of bigger cities into smaller ones.  This has increased during the pandemic, and is leading to a resurgence for places where social distancing is easier.  Offices are less affected, because so many people are actually working from home.  Retail has been impacted by e-commerce.  Even industrial properties, though, have seen the uptick in demand.  

Location is also about proximity to larger markets, so it isn't just about where people want to live.  Our real estate is more affordable, and transportation is available to both Boston and New York. We have become very attractive to investors for these reasons, leading to an increase in multiple offers.

We expect this to continue, and we need more listings, in order to satisfy buyers.  Normally, summer would be slow, but that won't be true this summer. Fewer people are traveling, and more want to buy, rent, and sell before a possible second wave of COVID.  So think about your long-term goals, and call a commercial agent soon!

What Shape Will the Recovery Curve Take for Commercial Real Estate?

This is a somewhat misleading headline, since I am neither a professional economist, nor a seer.  The point I want to make, however, is that there is much more activity than there was after the abrupt economic debacle of 1987, or during the Great Recession of the late "Aughts".  In those two prior times, all interest in viewing real estate, or in buying or renting it, went on hold as soon as the stock market collapsed.  It took many years, in each case, to revive demand, or begin to create supply.

Right now, we are seeing strong activity in the industrial market, as well as demand in investment real estate continuing along.  Retail and traditional office buildings have clearly been harder hit, so it will take longer to see what happens in those sectors.  The fact that sales and leases are occurring, however, shows that this recovery won't be as delayed as the other two.  It may not mean that prices stay up, although we haven't seen that problem yet.  

One big factor is that some parts of the national economy, led by ecommerce, and followed closely by PPE manufacturers, have every reason to be expanding.  The pandemic part of this crisis, leaving the economic issues aside, have created opportunities for new businesses and expanded services.  Some of the current trends seem likely to persist, even if the country completely opens up by the end of the summer.  While things could certainly shift for a number of reasons, nimble entrepreneurs and corporate leaders are moving quickly to fill demand. 

The intervention of the government in the early stages may also mean that banks are more inclined to lend.  The relief provided so far gives financing firms more assurance that they will eventually get paid.  That wasn't true in the last recession, and it was recent enough that we seem to be remembering those lessons.  

Let's hope that I'm right, and that we see strong sales and leasing as restrictions lift.  Given our large role in the overall economy, that would be good news for everyone.

IRS Extends Tax Deadlines

The IRS issued guidance Thursday evening to grant deadline relief for both 1031 like-kind exchanges and opportunity zone investments that are already underway.  Both of these programs are designed to promote economic growth in communities, and NAR made the case that investors in these programs should not be harmed due to the effects of COVID-19.
     

·        1031 Like-kind exchanges.  If an investor has taken the first step of a like-kind exchange by selling the old property, and either the 45-day or the 180-day deadline falls between April 1 and July 15, the deadline has been extended to July 15. 

·        Opportunity Zones.  If an investor who sold a capital asset planned to roll over the gain into an Opportunity Fund and the 180-day deadline to do so falls between April 1 and July 15, 2020, he or she can make the investment as late as July 15.  

Also, sole proprietors who pay quarterly estimated taxes now have until July 15 to file their second quarter payment.  As a result of an earlier IRS notice, first quarter estimated tax payments had already been extended to July 15.  This means that any individual or corporation that has a quarterly estimated tax payment due on or after April 1, 2020, and before July 15, 2020, can wait until July 15 to make that payment, without penalty.  

NAR has advocated heavily for these extensions since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. We'll have a full analysis of this announcement Friday on our dedicated coronavirus page.

Too Early to Plan Around the Election?

I've heard a lot of discussion lately about planning real estate decisions vs. a vs. the next presidential election.  While we all realize that speculation is often just that, it is true that people do try their best to suss out what they think will happen to the economy, and therefore to real estate, if one or another person becomes President.  Obviously, many thought that Trump, as a real estate developer, would make choices that would be good for real estate investment on every level.  While that has not been universally true, it does seem true that, even in Connecticut, where 47% of those polled recently said that they were thinking about leaving the State within the next five years, there is a feeling of being better off than four years ago.  Is that because we are four years further from the last recession, or because interest rates and unemployment are low? Or is the scary stock market leading to moving money to "safer" places?  It doesn't really matter.  Real estate seems to be in favor as an investment again.

I've written about the opportunities buyers are finding along the Shoreline, now that hurricane fears seem more distant, and summer family gathering places more important.  I've also talked about the potential for real estate investment, especially in warehouses and flex spaces, based on location, and the type of needs that follow residential apartment expansion.  All of those things are true.  It does seem to me that our market in general is somewhat better than in other places, mostly due to the lack of a run up causing a subsequent downturn.  Whatever the cause, we are behind the curve, as we have been for a long time, and for now that is a good thing.

Should you wait for November of 2020?  It's a long way away.  Weigh your personal life goals against the choices, and make a plan.  Personally, I think there are too many unknowns, and the knowns tend to favor real estate investment now.

The Amazon Ripple Effect

Now that Amazon's new warehouse is about to open in North Haven, we should focus on the broader effects of its presence.  Although politicians tend to focus on employment, we should also consider the other businesses brought here by Amazon.  We have had two large deals recently, where the buyer chose the location because it was a supplier to Amazon, or provided a service that it would purchase. Investors, developers, and builders, please take note.

Since all of those other organizations employ people as well, plus they pay taxes and buy goods and services, this is very good news for our region. Warehouse space is becoming more desirable, and other companies will build from scratch.  The multiplier effect will be in full force!  Employees will also buy houses, cars, and durable goods, plus eat out, give to charities, and pay taxes.  And that will be good for all of us.

Still More Apartments

Every time we turn around, someone else is announcing a new project with rental units.  Some are in Hartford, some in the suburbs all over, but New Haven is garnering (still) the biggest share.  There seems to be no end to the demand, or at least, we haven't seen it yet.  We all know that it will come, but who can say when the demand will dry up?

There are a few signs of increasing competition for tenants, which would indicate that the peak has passed.  However, we all know that the height of demand is usually demarcated in the rear view mirror.  Real estate is always cyclical.

This begs the question, however, of the other needs that all those tenants will have.  They tend to have high utilization of restaurants, entertainment, and convenience services.  The profile of a renter is different from that of an owner, if only because they aren't spending time or money on home maintenance or improvement.  That leaves them more time to work or play; if it's work, that leaves them also with more money, and a need for time-saving services.  Food places that deliver, pet and beauty options, and retail choices within walking distance will all increase. People who walk places can also drink in bars, since they are walking or Ubering home. Although they have been opening up regularly, the demand may be outpacing the supply, given all those new renters.

Why not try to be ready with commercial offerings. that will be ready when the units come on line?

How Do Real Estate Agents Get Paid?

I've started writing about common questions that buyers and sellers have, and, believe it or not, how we get paid is still one of them.  To understand the payment process, we first have to go over the legalities of licensing.  Each real estate company has one broker for legal purposes.  At Pearce, for example, I'm that person.  All agents at Pearce "hang" their licenses with us, although some of them are salespeople (who must work for a broker), and some are brokers themselves (who could work independently or can work for another broker).  Over 90% of real estate companies across the country have fewer than ten agents, and the broker sells him- or herself.  That makes Pearce Real Estate one of the largest firms in the State, and across the country.  The principles of agency, however, are the same regardless of size.  It's also useful to note what Realtor designates (and it needs a trademark sign, which is above my pay grade on a computer!):  It means that the company, and therefore all of its agents, belong to the National Association of Realtors, agree to abide by its Code of Ethics, and can participate in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS).  Most local firms are Realtor firms if they sell residential real estate, and, increasingly, commercial firms are not. We are, and we handle both types of property.

When a seller signs a listing agreement, or a buyer signs a buyer broker agreement (and those two contracts are basically equivalent), they sign with the broker in charge.  Only the broker in charge sets the rules--commission rates and terms--or can legally change or cancel the agreement.  Most compensation is offered through the MLS:  When a listing is posted there, it has a BBC (Buyer Broker Commission) offered, and the listing firm is required to pay that amount to the broker who represents the buyer, unless a change is agreed to by both firms, or firm if it is a sale with both brokers at the same company (which we call an "in-house" sale).   In order to have an in-house sale, both buyer and seller must sign a Dual Agency agreement.

When the property closes,in most cases, the closing attorney makes out a check or checks to the brokerage firm--checks cannot be made out to individual agents.  Firms differ widely in the way they compensate agents within their firms, both in the percentage of the check that goes to the agent, and in what expenses they pay toward the transactions.  In addition, some (usually national) firms also charge buyers and sellers "transaction fees", which are paid on top of the commission, and go only to the real estate company. In some cases, the commission is divided evenly between the listing side of the transaction and the selling side.  Increasingly, the listing firm keeps a higher amount, and offers a BBC that is less than half of the total.

Agents are legally independent contractors, so they don't get a salary, or a regular paycheck.  They earn money only when property closes or rents, and they share that with their firm.  It used to be that the firm got half and the agent got half, but now it can vary.  Some companies pay higher amounts (sometimes much higher percentages) to the agent, but often charge them for their desk, their postage, their copies, and their marketing.  Many transaction-related expenses are borne by the agent personally.  If he or she takes you to lunch, that comes out of his or her pocket.  If a problem arises during the selling process, and is paid for by the broker, that is also often coming out of the agent's share.  If you were referred to your agent or agency by another real estate agent or company, either here or somewhere else, that agent's firm can be receiving up to half of the total amount paid.

If all of this is making you feel as though the poor agent is at the bottom of the heap, you could be right, especially if you don't end up selling or buying, and they get nothing for all of their work.  What my goal is, however, is to make you understand what they make, and when, and to help you appreciate their excellent efforts on your behalf!

Set a New Deadline

We are just coming off of what turned out to be a very busy December.  There were lots of changes, of course, with the new Federal tax bill, but it was--and still is--very unclear as to whether some things should have been done last year, or will be more advantageous to do in 2018,  Nowhere is that more true than in the real estate realm.

So, while uncertainty generally slows a process down, last month it sped up.  When I tried to think of why that would be, I realized that the end of a calendar year is a powerful and motivating deadline.  All sorts of people rush to finish projects and clear off their to-do lists before a year ends.  This year, despite all the potential changes, was no different, and even busier.

It made me conscious of the fact that the real estate market has been slowed down by people feeling that there was no pressure to make decisions.  Instead, they thought that properties would continue to be available, maybe even for less, into the foreseeable future.  Our job as agents was to try to create urgency.  That was often hard.

Therefore, our hope for next year is that all potential and current clients have a self-imposed deadline of some sort.  Whether their hope is to move, sell, or redeploy assets, everyone needs a finish line to cross.  Uncertainty can be problematic, but, if it lasts too long, more is lost by waiting than by simply moving on.

Greater New Haven, or Connecticut as a whole, residential, commercial, or investment, buy, sell, or rent--all are choices.  Just make one, and you will feel accomplished and relieved.

Tax Reform Heads to the President

Tax Reform Heads to the President

Lawmakers in the House and Senate passed tax reform legislation today, paving the way for the bill to go to President Donald Trump for his signature. The President has said he intends to sign the bill by Christmas.

NAR worked with members of the House-Senate conference committee to help educate them on how to improve the final bill. After the vote, President Elizabeth Mendenhall issued the following statement:

"The results are mixed. We saved the exclusion for capital gains on the sale of a home and protected the mortgage interest deduction for second homes. Many agents and brokers who earn income from personal services will also see some significant new benefits in their business.

Despite these successes, we still have some hard work ahead of us. Significant legislative initiatives often require fixes to address unintended consequences, and this bill is no exception. The new tax regime will fundamentally alter the benefits of homeownership by nullifying incentives for individuals and families while keeping those incentives in place for large institutional investors.

That should concern any middle-class family looking to claim their piece of the American Dream."

Although the final tax reform bill is far from perfect, it is significantly better for homeowners than previous versions. That’s thanks to the efforts you made. REALTORS® generated over 300,000 emails and telephone calls to members of Congress over two Calls for Action and held countless in-person meetings with legislators, all of which helped shape the final product.

Last-minute changes to the bill include the following improvements:

• Capital gains exclusion. In a huge win for current and prospective homeowners, current law is left in place on the capital gains exclusion of $250,000 for an individual and $500,000 for married couples on the sale of a home. Both the House and the Senate had sought to make it much harder to qualify for the exclusion.

• Mortgage interest deduction. The maximum mortgage amount for households deducting their mortgage interest has been decreased to $750,000 from the current $1 million limit. The House bill sought a reduction to $500,000.

• State and local tax deductions. Both property taxes and state and local income taxes remain deductible, although with a combined limit of $10,000. Both the House and Senate bills sought to eliminate the state and local income tax deduction altogether.

• Pass-through entities. The bill significantly reduces the effective rate of tax on business income earned by independent contractors and income received from pass-through entities. This change will lower the taxes of many real estate professionals.

Next steps

Enactment of the bill does not end NAR’s effort to reduce the negative impact on homeowners. “REALTORS®’ work on tax issues will continue," says Mendenhall, "and we look forward to joining members of Congress from both sides of the rotunda on that endeavor.”

Access details of the bill.

Don't Forget Not-for-Profit Sector

Sometimes, when we bemoan the condition of business expansions (few) in Connecticut these days, we overlook the fact that we have a robust non-profit sector.  This is especially true in Greater New Haven, where more than half of our largest employers are not-for-profits.  That means that there is more demand, perhaps, for real estate than we might initially think. 

Although we think of not-for-profits as not having much money, in some cases that isn't true.  Many work on essential services, and are funded by governmental sources.  Although that can be problematic these days, in some ways it isn't any different than having a for-profit business depend upon clients that may or may not purchase their goods and services within a particular time frame.  And cash flow issues are not limited to the not-for-profit world.  

In addition to the health of their organizations, not-for-profits are often more flexible about the types of space they can use, and what they can make work.  If the price is right, they may not require the same fit-up as other businesses, since their clients would not expect, and might even not enjoy, seeing fancy offices for a charitable or governmental agency.   

Even cash flow can often be worked out, if landlords or sellers are willing to take money over time, or wait for a federal or State grant to be funded.  Once it is, you might be able to, as they say, take it to the bank.  Even donated funds are now usually documented with signed pledges, and those usually come in on an annual basis.  

So don't count out a whole sector of our economy.  It's out there, and it occupies space.