Sunday, February 21, 2021

Will Commercial and Office Real Estate in Greater New Haven Rebound?

We think so.  Greater New Haven has as its mainstays industries which cannot easily be done remotely.   Education, medical, and biotech uses predominate throughout the region, as well as substantial sectors of arts and not-for-profits.  Many of these cannot be accommodated with remote work, or at least predominately remote work

Do we think that the COVID vaccines were developed by scientists working at home?  No, they needed lab space, and collaboration. They may have written documents for their FDA applications from a remote location, but the products would have been invented in shared space.

Education is being delivered remotely at the present time, but we haven't heard that colleges and universities will remain doing things that way, when it's safe to come back.  In fact, what's safe is the idea that students will want to congregate, because that's a big part of an ideal learning environment, plus it's more fun.

Medical services have been done, in part, through telehealth during the pandemic, but you can't do a CT scan or an MRI remotely, and it's hard even to do a skin scan or any kind of  physical, without seeing the patient.  While people are coping with some remote work, there doesn't seem to be any movement to having dentists clean your teeth from their homes!  Much of medicine will continue to need space, both for research and for healthcare delivery.

In addition to those sectors, there seems to be no question that the average person is looking forward to eating in a restaurant, and to seeing other people.  We think that dining and entertainment will boom in the upcoming months and years, just as the Roaring 20s followed the flu pandemic of 1918.  Pent up demand will result in increased activity for many retail uses, although some kinds of shopping may always retain an online segment.

Given Greater New Haven's mix of businesses and institutions, we see a bright future for commercial real estate over the next couple of years.  And we're glad about that!

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