Land Rush in Connecticut

The old saw, that they aren't making any more land, is still true.  The pandemic has made people look for room to spread out, whether it be to live or to work. We've been seeing more land sales as a result.  

It's probably also because land is harder to finance, and requires more money down.  Money is cheap now, and also doesn't have a lot of value just stored in a bank.  In addition, most people with investments have seen them go up in value, so they have cash with which to diversify.

 

Given our prime location in Connecticut, between NYC and Boston, land should be at a premium.  And, since so much of what's already built is being repurposed for newer uses, it makes the cost of building from scratch look less steep.  Plus, you can have exactly what you want. The lack of supply feeds into this too.  If you can't find it, build it yourself.

 

Finally, entrepreneurship is at a high level these days.  Risk takers take other risks as well.  Building is often seen as riskier than buying an existing property, and certainly building on spec is always a risk.

  

What does this all mean?  If you have land, now just might be the best time to sell.

Commercial Deals in Connecticut Are Going Forward

COVID's effect on real estate was a hot topic early in the pandemic, but the residential market clearly took off.  A combination of increased saving, low interest rates, high household formation, and desire for more space for working and distancing added up to strong demand, while lack of supply fueled the increase in prices that followed.  Although there was a dip here in the second quarter of 2020, the rest of the year, and most of this year so far, have been good ones for the industry.

But what of commercial real estate?  Uncertainly is always a huge factor in that sector, and nothing could have been more uncertain than the length and severity of the public health crisis.  While office space has continued to languish in many places, research facilities and health care needs have boomed. Distribution was already a robust area, and the pandemic caused more and more home delivery, leading to greater demand for distribution footage.

In Connecticut's cities, the increase in population has led to the building of additional rental apartments, particularly in the luxury market, and they have continued to lease well.  The latest census shows a shift from suburbs to cities over the State, with New Haven out in front.  

Homeowners and tenants always lead to more demand for retail, and, despite lockdowns and closings, this year has been no exception.  Only lack of staff has limited restaurant growth.  The most surprising fact is the desire for more retail grocery stores.  Even though people have been wanting, and waiting, to eat out, they apparently are cooking more as well.  Fairfield County especially seems to be seeing a great deal of transactions in premium stores.

If the last two years have taught us anything, they've taught us that it's hard to predict the future.  Yet, throughout it all, real estate has carved out a healthy growth rate and popularity.  And that bodes well for Connecticut's next decade.

The Future of Office Space in Greater New Haven

 Much has been written about the terrible effects of the pandemic on occupancy rates in major cities.  Although New Haven is a smaller city, it has reasons to hope that office space locally will not take the big hits predicted in other areas.

First of all, we don't have the same supply.  We haven't been adding to the number of office buildings the way other regions have done.  In fact, we've been taking office and turning it into residential in several cases.  Low supply always pushes up occupancy rates.

Secondly, we have been adding residential units, both condo and particularly rentals, at a fast clip over the past decade.  Luxury buildings have all filled faster than expected, and sometimes it seems that there is an unending demand.  Although some tenants commute to other cities, preferring New Haven as a place to live, most people are working or going to school here.  As that continues, it leads to a greater need for commercial space, even offices.  Obviously, it helps retail, restaurants, and service uses, but it has long been known that people try to work where they want to live.

Thirdly, our uses for office space don't line up exactly with most urban locations.  Yale is a large tenant, in addition to owning millions of square feet of space.  Biotech is a greater percentage of the for-profit sector than in most other cities, and the need for lab space and intensive collaboration means that employees can't do much of their work from home.  Those factors won't change, and that will help us fill more office/flex space going forward.

Finally, COVID has pushed many to move from dense locations to ones with more open space.  Smaller cities are thriving, and may outpace larger ones over the next few years.  New Haven, with its desirable location between NYC and Boston, may well be one that does exceptionally well.  And we're on board with that!

Restaurants!

During the spring, while people we knew were getting vaccinated, a common question to ask was "What is the first thing you will do when you are fully vaccinated?".  Sometimes, it was a trip to see children or grandchildren, but the other common answer was "Go to a restaurant".  One enterprising person made his reservations the day of his second shot!

This can be seen as somewhat surprising, since restaurant visitation doesn't show up quite that often as the above anecdote would predict, when people are queried about their passions.  Those tend to be travel, sports, time with family, or hobbies. 

The other really surprising news to us recently was the number of employed workers who quit their jobs this spring.  Why? Usually, it was because the pandemic had changed their priorities, either for what they did all day, or where they wanted to live going forward.

So what do this two factors mean for real estate in Connecticut?  That there is a great pent-up demand for eating out, and therefore a likely higher rate of success for new restaurants than history would predict.  Dining places with outdoor tables would come in at a even greater premium. 

Also, leaving a job without another one, even when jobs are plentiful, shows a tendency toward risk taking, which is certainly true for entrepreneurs.  Many people dream of one day owning a restaurant.  Now would seem to be the perfect time to test that reality, and open a place of their own.  

Landlords should therefore consider changes in use for more commercial kitchens to be built, and perhaps zoning requests for outdoor seating.  Tenants should feel safe in taking more chances now, when the stars seemed to be aligned for success.

Still More Rentals Needed

We are starting to see the effect of slightly rising interest rates and rapidly rising home prices on the Greater New Haven real estate market.  First-time homebuyers, many of whom have burdensome student debt, are beginning to be priced out of the tight sellers' market we are currently in.  More houses are going under contract and then returning to active status. Many homes now sell without contingencies, but those go to buyers who know that they will have the cash, or the easy availability of mortgage funds, to close.  

Houses going back onto the market are often ones where the buyers need to sell, or be qualified, before they can lock themselves into a contract.  Sometimes they don't qualify for the lowest rates, or those rates have risen.  Sometimes they don't calculate fees, insurance, and other costs.  Sometimes they just get cold feet.  When that happens, what will they do?

They will continue to rent.  As we have discussed before, there seems to be a bottomless demand for rental housing in our market.  Some is caused by one of the scenarios above.  Some is caused by COVID, because student housing cannot be as dense as it used to be.  Some is demographically driven.  Whatever the reasons, people are still filling up what's out there.

That's an opportunity for investors and developers.  Buy a home, convert a building, or build from scratch.  It's a good time to go into the rental market as an owner, and make a living from the proceeds.  We're here to help!